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Will Bitcoin Break Out or Break Down? Justin Bennett Lays Out the Options

Crypto analyst Justin Bennett outlines two possible scenarios for Bitcoin after its bounce from the $100,000 support level — a bullish move above $105K or a bearish dip toward $97K. Explore the key levels, macro factors, and what's next for BTC.

As Bitcoin (BTC) hovers around a key psychological and technical zone, renowned crypto trader Justin Bennett has drawn attention to what he calls a "crunch time" moment for the market. With BTC recently rebounding from a critical $100,000 support level, traders and investors are now closely watching for clues about its next major move.

Bennett, known for his detailed technical outlooks, has identified two potential scenarios — a bullish breakout or a bearish breakdown — with implications that could shape the mid-term trajectory of the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

Table of Contents

The Bullish Scenario: Reclaiming Resistance

Following Bitcoin’s dip to $100,000, a swift bounce brought prices back to $104,000, a move Bennett described as “looking pretty bullish.” He highlighted that the $104,000–$105,000 range now acts as immediate resistance, and whether or not BTC can reclaim this zone will likely determine the strength of its next leg up.

“A reclaim would be bullish back to $106,600,” Bennett noted on X (formerly Twitter), emphasizing that resistance needs to be “proven otherwise” before full confidence can return to the bulls.

A successful push above $105,000, particularly if backed by strong volume, could open the door to retesting $106,600 — a previous May high. From there, a breakout might even position Bitcoin for another run toward the $110,000 region, assuming no macro headwinds arise.

The Bearish Scenario: Revisiting Imbalance Zones

Despite the encouraging rebound, Bennett cautions that if Bitcoin fails to hold its reclaimed gains, we could see a retest of the imbalance zone between $97,000–$98,000. In technical analysis, “imbalance” refers to price levels where trading volume was disproportionately one-sided, often leaving the market prone to “fill” these areas later.

“Now, does Bitcoin fill the $97,000/$98,000 imbalance? Or can bulls reclaim this $104,000–$105,000 area? Crunch time,” Bennett posed in a post to his 115,700 followers.

Should BTC lose grip on the $100K mark again and drop into this range, it may suggest further weakness — possibly bringing longer-term support zones into play.

Macro Factors: Tether Dominance and Equity Markets

Beyond the charts, Bennett is also watching Tether (USDT) dominance — a metric that often inversely correlates with BTC. He suggests that USDT dominance nearing 5% might signal a local bottom for Bitcoin, noting that previous market reversals have aligned with similar readings.

“I’m not saying Tether dominance at 5% will be the bottom for BTC,” he said, “but there should be a strong reaction in that area if tested.”

In addition, traditional financial markets — particularly the U.S. stock indices like the S&P 500 — are likely to exert influence over Bitcoin’s next move. As correlations between crypto and equities remain relatively strong, a selloff in tech or risk assets could spill over into crypto and disrupt any bullish BTC structure.

Key Levels to Watch

Price Level

Significance

$100,000

Key psychological support

$104,000–$105,000

Immediate resistance zone

$106,600

Resistance from May highs

$97,000–$98,000

Imbalance zone (bearish target)

$110,000

Bullish target if breakout succeeds

Investor Outlook: Prepare for Volatility

For now, Bitcoin is trading near $105,200, with the market poised between recovery and rejection. Whether the bulls reclaim the $105K zone or the bears drag BTC back toward $98K, traders should brace for volatility.

In such an uncertain environment, risk management and awareness of macro triggers will be key. Bennett’s framework offers a roadmap, but as always in crypto, confirmation and patience are critical.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's recent bounce from the $100,000 level has given the market renewed hope, but as Justin Bennett emphasizes, it's now “crunch time.” The coming days will be critical in determining whether BTC can build on its recovery or slide back into bearish territory.

If bulls reclaim the $104K–$105K zone and flip it into support, the path toward $106.6K and beyond opens up. However, failure to hold current levels could invite a drop to the $97K–$98K imbalance zone — a warning that the market may not be done correcting.

In this pivotal phase, investors should stay alert to technical signals, macro influences like Tether dominance and stock indices, and be ready to adapt to fast-moving market conditions. Whether Bitcoin breaks out or breaks down, preparation and discipline will be key.

FAQs

What are the key resistance levels for Bitcoin according to Justin Bennett?

Bennett highlights $104,000–$105,000 as current resistance, with $106,600 being the next significant level if that zone is reclaimed.

What does the $97,000–$98,000 imbalance mean?

It refers to a price area where trading was previously one-sided. Markets often return to these zones to “fill” the imbalance, making it a potential target in a bearish scenario.

How does Tether (USDT) dominance affect Bitcoin’s price?

Tether dominance typically moves inversely to BTC. When USDT dominance rises (suggesting traders are fleeing to stablecoins), Bitcoin often declines, and vice versa.

Why is $100,000 considered a critical support level?

It’s both a technical and psychological threshold. A strong bounce from this level suggests buyer strength, but losing it could spark deeper corrections.

What macro factors should traders monitor?

Besides crypto indicators, keep an eye on the U.S. stock market and liquidity trends. Risk-off behavior in equities can negatively affect crypto markets.

That's all for today, see ya tomorrow! If you want more, be sure to follow our X (@croxroadnewsco), Instagram (@croxroadnews.co), Youtube (@thebitcoinlibertarian), Tiktok (@croxroadnews) and nostr - [email protected]

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.

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