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Bitcoin Set to Moon? PlanB Reveals His Bull Market Targets

Quant analyst PlanB predicts Bitcoin is significantly undervalued and may soar to $250,000–$1 million in the current cycle. Discover his price targets, model insights, and what it means for investors.

As Bitcoin hovers just above the $100,000 mark, one of the crypto market's most closely watched analysts, PlanB, is doubling down on a bullish forecast. In a recent update shared with his 213,000 YouTube followers, the quant analyst—best known for pioneering the stock-to-flow (S2F) model—argues that Bitcoin is still significantly undervalued and that the real bull market is only beginning.

Table of Contents

The Stock-to-Flow Model: Scarcity Drives Value

At the core of PlanB’s thesis is the stock-to-flow model, which evaluates an asset’s value based on its scarcity. Applied to Bitcoin, the model compares the current supply (stock) with the rate at which new coins are mined (flow), suggesting that scarcity—intensified by Bitcoin's halving events—drives long-term price increases.

According to PlanB, the S2F model currently suggests an average Bitcoin price of $500,000 for the ongoing four-year market cycle. With BTC trading at around $104,000, this leaves plenty of upside, even before considering potential volatility peaks.

“Bitcoin is still far away from the stock-to-flow value of $500,000 based on scarcity fundamentals. That’s what I expect the average over this four-year cycle to be,” PlanB said.

Where Are We in the Cycle?

PlanB argues that Bitcoin is only one year into its current four-year cycle, meaning there’s substantial room for growth ahead. He points to historical trends, where the strongest bull markets typically took shape in the second and third years following each halving.

While the market experienced a price surge following the January 2024 approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, PlanB believes that was more of a false start than the true beginning of the bull phase.

“We made a fake loop in bull market territory after the January 2024 ETF introductions. And we’re now right back at where all the bull markets in the past have started,” he noted.

PlanB's Bold Targets: $250,000 to $1 Million

In terms of specific price forecasts, PlanB isn’t pulling punches. He predicts Bitcoin could reach anywhere from $250,000 to $1 million before the end of this cycle. This represents a potential 860% increase from current levels.

Such an extraordinary forecast naturally invites skepticism, especially from those who feel Bitcoin’s best days are behind it. However, PlanB insists these targets are grounded in data and precedent, not mere speculation.

Implications for Investors

If PlanB's model proves accurate, the current price zone could represent a historic buying opportunity. For long-term investors who subscribe to the stock-to-flow framework, Bitcoin at $104,000 may still be a bargain.

However, PlanB also cautions that cycle timing is crucial. Price discovery phases can be volatile, and even within a bull market, sharp corrections are not unusual.

A Model Under Scrutiny

It’s worth noting that the stock-to-flow model has faced criticism, particularly during the 2021 cycle when Bitcoin failed to hit PlanB’s projected targets. Critics argue that external factors such as macroeconomic shifts, regulatory crackdowns, and institutional behavior can derail even the most elegant models.

Yet, PlanB remains undeterred. For him, the model’s long-term predictive power remains intact, especially when it comes to cycle-wide averages rather than month-to-month movements.

Conclusion

PlanB’s projections may sound overly ambitious to some, but they’re rooted in a framework that has, more often than not, been directionally correct. If Bitcoin is truly at the start of another major bull cycle, then today’s prices could soon be a memory.

For investors, the real question is not whether Bitcoin might go higher—but whether they believe scarcity, adoption, and macro trends will align once more to make it happen.

FAQs

Who is PlanB?

PlanB is a pseudonymous quantitative analyst known for creating the Bitcoin stock-to-flow (S2F) model, which predicts Bitcoin’s price based on its scarcity. He is widely followed in the crypto community for his market-cycle forecasts.

What is the stock-to-flow model?

The stock-to-flow model measures the scarcity of an asset by comparing the existing supply (stock) to the new production rate (flow). For Bitcoin, the model suggests that as new coins become harder to mine (especially after halving events), the price should increase significantly over time.

What is PlanB’s current Bitcoin price prediction?

PlanB expects Bitcoin’s average price during the current four-year cycle to reach around $500,000. He forecasts that the price could range between $250,000 and $1 million before the cycle ends.

Why does PlanB believe the bull market is just beginning?

PlanB argues that we are only one year into the current four-year cycle, and historical data shows that the major price increases typically occur in the second and third years. He believes the market is mimicking early bull phases seen in previous cycles.

Has the stock-to-flow model always been accurate?

Not entirely. The model has faced criticism, especially after Bitcoin failed to reach PlanB’s projections in late 2021. However, PlanB maintains that the model is more accurate when used to predict cycle-wide averages, rather than short-term movements.

That's all for today, see ya tomorrow! If you want more, be sure to follow our X (@croxroadnewsco), Instagram (@croxroadnews.co), Youtube (@thebitcoinlibertarian), Tiktok (@croxroadnews) and nostr - [email protected]

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.

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