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Why Bitcoin Mining Profits Have Dropped to a 14-Month Low

Bitcoin mining profits have hit a 14-month low as prices slide and difficulty remains elevated. Miner stress is rising. Here’s why it matters for BTC.

Bitcoin mining is a commodity business: miners sell a standardized product (hashpower securing blocks) into a market where revenue is mostly dictated by Bitcoin’s price, network difficulty, and transaction fee demand. When two or three of those variables move against miners at the same time, profitability can fall fast.

That is what recent data is showing. CryptoQuant reported its Miner Profit and Loss Sustainability Index fell to 21, the lowest reading since November 2024, signaling miners’ economics have deteriorated to a 14 month low.

Table of Contents

How mining profitability is actually calculated

A miner’s daily revenue is primarily:

  1. Block subsidy: newly issued Bitcoin paid to the miner that finds a valid block.

  2. Transaction fees: fees paid by users to include transactions in blocks.

That revenue is then weighed against operating costs, mainly:

  • Electricity

  • Hosting and cooling

  • Hardware depreciation and financing

  • Operational downtime (lost revenue opportunity)

When revenue falls or costs rise faster than revenue, margins compress. In a tight squeeze, some miners shut off machines, hash rate drops, and the network responds with a difficulty adjustment.

The core driver: Bitcoin price fell while difficulty stayed heavy

Mining revenue is earned in BTC, but most miners pay expenses in fiat. So profitability is extremely sensitive to Bitcoin’s spot price. Recent reporting tied the profit hit directly to a price drop combined with still challenging mining conditions.

Even if the network later adjusts difficulty downward, miners feel the pain immediately when BTC moves lower because their USD revenue per terahash drops in real time.

Hash rate and “hashprice” dynamics have turned against miners

A big tell in miner stress is when hash rate trends down for multiple cycles. Multiple outlets citing CryptoQuant noted that Bitcoin’s network hash rate declined for several consecutive periods, reaching the lowest levels since September 2025.

This is consistent with miners turning off less efficient rigs because the “hashprice” (revenue paid per unit of hashpower) no longer clears their variable costs.

Transaction fees did not compensate for weaker block subsidy value

When Bitcoin’s price declines, miners often hope transaction fees will rise enough to offset the hit. That typically happens during periods of intense on-chain demand.

But recent miner revenue data indicates overall earnings were “extremely low,” suggesting fees were not strong enough to counteract the price and difficulty squeeze.

Operational disruption: winter storms reduced uptime and revenue

There was also a non market shock. Reporting highlighted that a major winter storm in the eastern United States disrupted some mining operations, adding downtime on top of already thin margins.

For miners, downtime is brutal because fixed costs keep running while revenue goes to zero.

What the 14-month low signal actually means

CryptoQuant’s index reading of 21 is being interpreted as a stress level that historically aligns with miner profitability compression and shutdown pressure.

You can think of it as an “economic survivability gauge” for the average miner. When it drops to extremes, the weakest operators are forced to:

  • Power down older ASICs

  • Renegotiate hosting and power contracts

  • Sell more BTC to fund operations

  • Merge, restructure, or exit

The near-term release valve: difficulty may drop

When enough miners shut off machines, the protocol eventually lowers difficulty, improving economics for those who remain online.

Several reports noted an upcoming difficulty adjustment that could reduce difficulty materially, potentially offering miners relief if price stabilizes.

Conclusion

Miner stress does not automatically mean Bitcoin will fall. Historically, periods of heavy mining stress can create two opposing forces:

  • Short-term sell pressure if miners liquidate BTC to cover expenses.

  • Medium-term stabilization if difficulty adjusts down and forced selling eases.

Separately, miners under pressure often reduce capital spending, which can slow hash rate growth until profitability improves.

FAQs

Why have Bitcoin mining profits dropped recently?

Bitcoin mining profits have fallen due to a combination of lower Bitcoin prices, high network difficulty, weak transaction fees, and rising operational pressures. When revenue declines faster than costs, miner margins shrink quickly.

What does a 14-month low in mining profits mean?

A 14-month low indicates miners are earning less than at any point since late 2024. This level of stress often forces inefficient miners offline and signals consolidation across the mining industry.

What is the CryptoQuant Miner Profit and Loss Sustainability Index?

It is a metric that measures how sustainable current mining profits are relative to historical conditions. A low reading suggests miners are under financial strain and may need to shut down equipment or sell Bitcoin to survive.

Does lower mining profitability affect Bitcoin’s security?

In the short term, miner stress can reduce network hash rate. However, Bitcoin automatically adjusts mining difficulty, which helps restore balance and maintain long-term network security.

Can falling mining profits be bullish for Bitcoin?

Historically, periods of miner stress have sometimes marked local market bottoms. When inefficient miners exit and difficulty adjusts lower, selling pressure can ease and remaining miners become more profitable.

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