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Could BTC Surge After a Dip? Benjamin Cowen Thinks So

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) could experience a powerful counter-trend rally after a potential dip. Discover the key support levels, historical comparisons, and macroeconomic risks that could shape BTC’s next big move.

As Bitcoin hovers near record levels in 2025, a prominent crypto analyst is suggesting that a short-term dip could pave the way for a powerful rally. Benjamin Cowen, a well-known figure in the crypto analysis space, is pointing to historical patterns—particularly from 2019—as a blueprint for what might come next. This approach is rooted in market psychology and technical charting, where past trends are studied to infer possible future moves. Cowen's perspective is particularly interesting because it acknowledges both the bullish and bearish potential paths. Instead of simply calling for a moonshot, he presents a nuanced scenario where a dip could be healthy. In this way, Cowen is providing more than just a price target—he’s outlining a strategy framework based on cyclical behavior. It’s an outlook that encourages informed decision-making, rather than reactionary moves based on hype or panic.

Table of Contents

A Pattern From the Past: 2019 Revisited

In a recent video to his nearly 900,000 YouTube subscribers, Cowen compared today’s Bitcoin market with the post-2017 correction seen in 2019. Back then, BTC experienced a notable counter-trend rally after a dip, offering a reprieve before the broader bear market resumed. This rally saw Bitcoin spike significantly before resuming its downward trajectory, and it served as a momentary resurgence of optimism in an otherwise bearish cycle. Cowen is highlighting that even within bear markets or corrections, strong bounces are not only possible but historically frequent. These bounces tend to trap overly pessimistic traders while rewarding those who understand cyclical volatility. He suggests that the crypto market often follows a pattern of psychological stages: denial, hope, fear, and recovery. By revisiting 2019, Cowen is offering a case study in how Bitcoin doesn’t move in a straight line—but in waves shaped by both technical and emotional forces.

The Role of Support Zones: $69K–$75K in Focus

Why is this range so important? According to Cowen, Bitcoin hasn’t yet fully tested the $69K–$75K zone in this cycle. If the price drops back to this level, it could offer a “healthy reset” for the market—one that clears excessive leverage and renews momentum for future upside. This support band is not arbitrary; it’s based on prior resistance and consolidation zones, where high trading volume suggests strong psychological interest. Markets often revisit these levels to test their strength before resuming a trend. Cowen notes that without this kind of retest, a rally may be more fragile and susceptible to sudden reversals. In essence, dipping into this range could act as a “springboard,” shaking out weak hands and setting a firmer foundation. For long-term bulls, such a dip could represent an attractive entry point or accumulation zone—especially if supported by bullish divergence indicators.

Macroeconomic Risks Loom

Still, even if the technicals align, Cowen warns that macroeconomic conditions could sabotage the rally—just like they did in 2019. That year, a spike in unemployment and recession fears abruptly halted Bitcoin’s rebound. External events like rising interest rates, tightening monetary policy, or major geopolitical crises can quickly overshadow even the strongest technical setups. Cowen emphasizes that Bitcoin doesn't operate in a vacuum—it’s increasingly intertwined with traditional financial markets. This means that shocks in the broader economy, such as a downturn in consumer spending or a sharp drop in employment, could lead to risk-off behavior across all asset classes. In such conditions, liquidity dries up, and even fundamentally strong assets can experience sharp declines. Therefore, while Bitcoin may look ready to bounce technically, macro conditions could be the deciding factor between a breakout and a breakdown.

BTC Today: Where We Stand

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $84,675, up around 1.1% in the past 24 hours. This price level places BTC in an interesting zone—not quite at all-time highs, but still within striking distance of major resistance. It also suggests that market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with participants waiting to see whether this is a consolidation phase or the start of a deeper correction. On-chain data shows that long-term holders are generally unmoved by short-term volatility, continuing to accumulate, while short-term traders are increasingly active. This divergence may set the stage for increased volatility in either direction. If Bitcoin can maintain support above $80K, it may suggest strong market confidence. However, if it breaks below, the door could open for the deeper pullback Cowen is predicting—which may not be a bad thing in the longer term.

What This Means for Investors

Cowen’s thesis doesn’t guarantee a drop—or a rally. Instead, it offers a scenario-based framework: If BTC dips to support and macro conditions remain stable, a sizable bounce could follow. This type of strategic thinking is particularly useful in volatile markets, where emotional reactions can easily lead to poor decision-making. For long-term investors, this framework can provide clarity amid chaos, allowing them to prepare rather than react. Traders might consider setting alerts or planning limit orders around key zones like $75K or $70K. Moreover, risk management remains crucial; even well-reasoned scenarios can fail when unexpected events hit. The takeaway here is not to blindly follow Cowen’s prediction, but to incorporate it into a broader strategy that accounts for multiple outcomes. Being ready for both downside and upside scenarios is what separates successful investors from those constantly caught off guard.

Conclusion

Benjamin Cowen’s analysis blends technical insight with macro awareness, offering a nuanced view of what might lie ahead for Bitcoin. While no prediction is certain, understanding historical analogs and key support levels can help investors navigate the market with more clarity. Cowen’s emphasis on cyclical behavior highlights the importance of zooming out and recognizing patterns over time. Investors who recognize these cycles may be better equipped to handle volatility without losing sight of the bigger picture. His analysis also reinforces the idea that volatility doesn’t have to be a threat—it can be an opportunity when properly understood and managed. Ultimately, Cowen’s perspective serves as a reminder: in the world of crypto, staying informed, prepared, and flexible is more valuable than ever. Whether you’re a trader or long-term HODLer, insights like these can help guide more strategic decisions in uncertain times.

FAQs

Who is Benjamin Cowen?

Benjamin Cowen is a widely followed crypto analyst and YouTuber known for his data-driven approach to analyzing Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets. He often focuses on macro trends, technical analysis, and market cycles.

What is a counter-trend rally?

A counter-trend rally is a temporary price increase that occurs during a broader downward trend. It’s often seen as a short-term bounce or relief rally before the prevailing downtrend continues.

Why is the $69K–$75K range important for Bitcoin?

This range is considered a key support zone based on historical price action and high trading activity. Cowen believes that if BTC dips into this area, it could trigger a strong bounce similar to past cycles.

What happened in 2019 that relates to Cowen’s current analysis?

In 2019, Bitcoin experienced a sharp rally during a correction phase but was ultimately dragged down again by worsening macroeconomic conditions. Cowen draws parallels to today’s market, suggesting a similar pattern could play out.

Could macroeconomic factors affect Bitcoin’s next move?

Yes. Factors like rising unemployment, inflation, interest rates, or global recessions can negatively impact market sentiment and risk assets, including Bitcoin, even if technicals suggest a bullish setup.

That's all for today, see ya tomorrow! If you want more, be sure to follow our X (@croxroadnewsco), Instagram (@croxroadnews.co), Youtube (@thebitcoinlibertarian), Tiktok (@croxroadnews) and nostr - [email protected]

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.

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