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Bitcoin to Hit $123K by June? Analyst Predicts Soaring Rebound

Crypto analyst Jamie Coutts predicts Bitcoin could hit $123K by June 2025, despite bearish sentiment and macroeconomic uncertainty. Discover the key drivers behind this bold forecast and what it means for investors.

As Bitcoin navigates a choppy macroeconomic landscape, a bold new forecast from Real Vision’s chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts is capturing the attention of investors. Coutts predicts Bitcoin could reach an eye-popping $123,000 by June 2025, despite bearish market sentiment and ongoing economic uncertainties. His outlook is based on historical data, monetary policy shifts, and market liquidity trends that suggest a major rebound may be closer than expected.

Table of Contents

A Bold Forecast Amid Uncertainty

Jamie Coutts argues that the market is underestimating how quickly Bitcoin could reclaim and surpass its previous all-time highs. Speaking to Cointelegraph, he stated that even in the absence of full clarity around U.S. economic policy—particularly former President Donald Trump’s tariffs and looming recession concerns—Bitcoin is poised to surge.

“The market may be underestimating how quickly Bitcoin could surge – potentially hitting new all-time highs before Q2 is out,” Coutts noted.

This optimism comes even as Bitcoin has recently dipped below $100,000 and remains around $85,880, according to CoinMarketCap, reflecting a 3.16% decline over the past 30 days.

Macroeconomic Tailwinds: Weakening Dollar and Easing Conditions

Coutts’ confidence is largely driven by macroeconomic indicators. He points to significant easing in financial conditions, marked by a notable weakening of the U.S. dollar and declining Treasury bond volatility. Notably, the U.S. dollar experienced its third-largest three-day drop since 2015, signaling a shift that Coutts believes is highly favorable for risk assets like Bitcoin.

Further boosting the liquidity outlook is the People’s Bank of China’s recent increase in liquidity injections, a move that enhances global financial conditions and investor appetite for alternative assets.

“Liquidity remains central to investing in all asset classes,” Coutts emphasized.

DXY Backtest: Historical Insights Point to a Rally

Coutts backs his prediction with data from the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), analyzing past correlations between DXY trends and Bitcoin performance. According to his model, Bitcoin’s price trajectory between now and June 1 could range from a worst-case scenario of $102,000 to a best-case of $123,000—the latter representing a 13% gain from its current all-time high of $109,000 set in January 2025.

In a March 7 post on X (formerly Twitter), Coutts wrote that given the historical backdrop, it’s hard to be “anything but bullish” on Bitcoin.

CryptoQuant Bull Score Sends a Contradictory Signal

While Coutts sees clear skies ahead, data from blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant suggests more caution. The firm's Bull Score Index has recently dropped to 20, the lowest since January 2023. This score indicates “least bullish conditions” and, historically, scores below 40 have signaled sustained bearish environments.

This contrast highlights a divergence between technical sentiment metrics and macro-driven forecasts, raising the question of whether the market is simply waiting for a catalyst—or stuck in a longer consolidation phase.

BlackRock’s Take: Recession Could Be Bullish for BTC

Adding to the mixed outlook is a comment from Robbie Mitchnick, BlackRock’s Head of Digital Assets, who noted that a recession—typically seen as a negative for most markets—could actually serve as a “big catalyst” for Bitcoin.

“I don’t know if we’ll have a recession or not, but a recession would be a big catalyst for Bitcoin,” Mitchnick told Yahoo Finance.

This view aligns with the narrative that Bitcoin acts as a hedge or safe haven during periods of financial instability, particularly when fiat currencies and traditional assets falter.

Conclusion

The possibility of Bitcoin hitting $123,000 by June underscores the volatile mix of optimism and caution currently shaping the crypto market. While historical and macroeconomic data offer a compelling case for a rebound, sentiment indicators suggest the rally may not come easily—or without resistance.

Investors are left balancing Coutts’ bullish outlook with data points that reflect broader market hesitation. Whether this prediction becomes reality will depend not just on Bitcoin's internal strength, but also on how global economic forces evolve over the coming months.

FAQs

Who is Jamie Coutts?

Jamie Coutts is the Chief Crypto Analyst at Real Vision, a financial media platform focused on macroeconomic trends, investing strategies, and digital assets. He is known for applying historical and macroeconomic data to cryptocurrency analysis.

Why does Coutts believe Bitcoin could reach $123K by June 2025?

Coutts bases his prediction on historical patterns in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), easing financial conditions, and rising global liquidity, especially from China’s central bank. He argues these macro tailwinds could fuel a strong Bitcoin rally.

What is the DXY and how does it affect Bitcoin?

The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) measures the dollar's strength against a basket of other major currencies. Historically, a weakening dollar correlates with rising Bitcoin prices as investors seek alternative stores of value.

What does CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index indicate?

CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index is currently at 20, signaling weak bullish sentiment. Historically, scores below 40 suggest limited near-term upside, potentially contradicting bullish price forecasts.

Is a recession good or bad for Bitcoin?

According to BlackRock’s Robbie Mitchnick, a recession could actually act as a catalyst for Bitcoin, as investors may seek out alternative assets perceived as more resilient to traditional market downturns.

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.

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