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JPMorgan Sounds Alarm on Bitcoin: What’s Behind the Bearish Outlook?

JPMorgan warns of weakening institutional demand and a looming Bitcoin "death cross," sparking fears of a potential crash. Is Bitcoin headed for a downturn, or is this just another shakeout before a rebound?

Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, is facing increasing pressure as analysts at JPMorgan issue a bearish warning about its future price trajectory. With concerns over institutional demand, technical indicators, and market sentiment, investors are wondering whether Bitcoin is heading toward a significant correction.

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Institutional Demand Weakens: A Bearish Signal?

JPMorgan analysts have pointed out that demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum futures has been weakening, a critical sign that institutional investors may be stepping back. Futures contracts are often used by large financial entities to gain exposure to Bitcoin without holding the asset directly.

According to a recent note from JPMorgan, the falling demand for CME Bitcoin futures could indicate a shift in sentiment among institutional investors. If futures contracts begin trading below spot prices—a situation known as backwardation—it could signal that big players expect further declines. The last time this happened was in mid-2024, and Bitcoin’s price subsequently dropped.

The "Death Cross" Concern: A Bearish Technical Pattern

Another warning sign comes from Bitcoin’s price charts, where technical analysts are eyeing a potential death cross. A death cross occurs when the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average, a traditional indicator of downward momentum in financial markets.

While some analysts argue that a death cross is not always a reliable predictor of a crash, it tends to shake investor confidence. The last time Bitcoin experienced this pattern, it led to a significant sell-off before rebounding months later.

Samson Mow's Price Suppression Theory

Samson Mow, CEO of Bitcoin wallet company Jan3 and a key figure in Bitcoin’s adoption in El Salvador, has raised concerns about possible price suppression in the market. Speaking at the Consensus Hong Kong conference, Mow suggested that Bitcoin’s recent sideways movement feels “manufactured”, rather than a natural period of consolidation.

“If you look at the price movement, we peak, and then we stay steady and chop sideways. It’s good—you can say it’s consolidation—but it just looks very manufactured.” — Samson Mow

Mow’s theory aligns with long-standing speculation that large institutional players or regulatory forces could be influencing Bitcoin’s price to prevent excessive volatility. However, concrete evidence of manipulation remains elusive.

Bitcoin’s Key Support Levels: How Low Could It Go?

Crypto analysts are now watching key support levels that could determine Bitcoin’s next move. Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, has identified $91,500 as a critical level. If Bitcoin falls below this mark, it could drop to $73,400, a price last seen in early 2024.

The broader crypto fear and greed index has also shifted into “fear” territory, indicating a potential sell-off if bearish sentiment continues to spread.

Abu Dhabi’s Billion-Dollar Bet on Bitcoin ETFs

Despite JPMorgan’s concerns, not all institutional investors are bearish. Abu Dhabi’s $1 trillion sovereign wealth fund recently invested $436 million in BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, demonstrating continued confidence in the long-term potential of Bitcoin.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have been a game-changer for institutional adoption. Since their launch in early 2024, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have surpassed $100 billion in net assets, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) holding nearly 600,000 BTC.

This raises an important question: If institutional demand is weakening, why are sovereign wealth funds still buying? Some analysts believe that short-term bearish signals do not necessarily reflect Bitcoin’s long-term outlook, which remains strong due to growing mainstream adoption.

Conclusion

JPMorgan’s warning highlights short-term risks in the Bitcoin market, with weakening institutional demand and technical indicators signaling possible downward pressure. However, major investments from sovereign wealth funds and long-term holders suggest that confidence in Bitcoin hasn’t disappeared entirely.

For investors, the key takeaway is that volatility remains a defining feature of Bitcoin. Whether it’s a death cross, futures market trends, or price suppression theories, the crypto market remains unpredictable. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin can hold key support levels or slide toward a deeper correction.

FAQs

Why is JPMorgan warning about Bitcoin?

JPMorgan analysts have raised concerns about weakening institutional demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum futures, which they see as a bearish signal. If institutional investors are losing interest, Bitcoin’s price may face downward pressure.

What is a Bitcoin "death cross," and why does it matter?

A death cross occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average, often signaling a potential price downturn. While not always accurate, it tends to lower investor confidence.

What does Samson Mow mean by "price suppression"?

Samson Mow suggests that Bitcoin’s price movement appears unnaturally stable, implying that large institutions or regulatory forces may be influencing the market to suppress volatility or prevent major price movements.

Could Bitcoin crash to $73,400?

Some analysts believe that if Bitcoin breaks $91,500, it could fall to $73,400, which was its previous peak in early 2024. However, long-term demand from institutions like Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund may help stabilize prices.

Are institutional investors leaving Bitcoin?

While some institutions are reducing their exposure to Bitcoin futures, others—like Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund—are still making major investments in Bitcoin ETFs, showing mixed sentiment.

That's all for today, see ya tomorrow! If you want more, be sure to follow our X (@croxroadnewsco), Instagram (@croxroadnews.co), Youtube (@thebitcoinlibertarian), Tiktok (@croxroadnews) and nostr - [email protected]

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.

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