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Why Bitcoin’s Next Move Could Be Bigger Than Ever

Discover why Bitcoin’s next move could be historic. Explore the role of ETFs, institutional demand, long-term holders, and on-chain metrics that point toward a potential Bitcoin supercycle in 2025.

As Bitcoin continues its strong performance into 2025, speculation is mounting: Could we be witnessing the early stages of the most explosive Bitcoin rally yet? With institutional flows rising, long-term holders showing remarkable resilience, and on-chain metrics echoing patterns from previous historic bull markets, the case for a Bitcoin "supercycle" is becoming harder to ignore. This time, the stakes—and the potential upside—might be higher than ever.

Table of Contents

1. Historical Echoes: A Triple-Peak Cycle in the Making?

Bitcoin’s market cycles have traditionally followed a four-year rhythm, with euphoric highs typically reached around 1,100 days after each cycle low. As we approach the 900-day mark since the last cycle bottom, Bitcoin’s price action is beginning to resemble the parabolic phases of 2017 and 2021.

But this cycle is showing signs of divergence. Analysts using behavioral correlations via the MVRV-Z Score—a metric that adjusts for lost coins and market value—note a striking similarity to the 2013 cycle, which saw a rare double-peak formation. Now, with one all-time high already established pre-halving (~$74k) and another post-halving (> $100k), the possibility of a third major peak is on the table. If it materializes, this would mark Bitcoin’s first triple-peak cycle, a potential hallmark of a historic supercycle.

2. Long-Term Holders: The Silent Strength Behind the Bull Market

One of the most bullish signs in any Bitcoin market is the behavior of long-term holders—those who have kept their coins untouched for over a year. Historically, these investors begin to offload their positions during euphoric price tops. Yet, in 2025, the 1+ Year HODL Wave continues to grow—even as prices soar.

This pattern indicates strong conviction and signals that the market may still be in a mid-cycle phase. These holders aren’t taking profits. Instead, they’re doubling down. This long-term mindset reduces available supply, creating a foundation for potentially dramatic upward price pressure if demand continues to accelerate.

3. ETFs and Institutions: The New Demand Engine

What separates this cycle from previous ones is the scale of institutional involvement. With multiple Bitcoin ETFs approved and operational in the U.S., the door has been opened for mainstream capital inflows like never before. Pension funds, asset managers, and retail investors alike now have an easy, regulated path into Bitcoin exposure.

Moreover, custodial ownership by large institutions tends to stabilize markets. Unlike retail investors prone to emotional decisions, institutional buyers are more likely to view Bitcoin as a strategic, long-duration asset. The result? Less selling, tighter supply, and a higher floor price.

4. On-Chain Metrics: Still Room to Run

The MVRV-Z Score, a trusted on-chain indicator for identifying Bitcoin market tops and bottoms, reached 3.39 during the recent $73k surge—high, but not unprecedented. In contrast, peaks in 2017 and 2021 exceeded 7, suggesting Bitcoin may have significant headroom before becoming overextended.

Further, metrics like the Realized Cap and Coin Days Destroyed suggest that market froth is still low, despite the rising price. Combined with steady growth in exchange outflows and a declining proportion of short-term holders, these signs point to a healthy, sustainable uptrend—not a flash in the pan.

5. Macro and Market Maturity: A Different Landscape

Unlike prior cycles, Bitcoin is no longer a fringe speculative asset. Its growing integration into global finance means it now responds to broader macroeconomic dynamics, including interest rates, liquidity cycles, and monetary policy.

Yet this maturation doesn’t diminish its upside. In fact, Bitcoin’s positioning as a digital store of value—especially in a world of debt-heavy fiat systems—makes it increasingly attractive during times of monetary expansion or geopolitical instability.

Conclusion

While past performance never guarantees future results, the stars appear to be aligning for an unprecedented move. The confluence of historical cycle patterns, resilient long-term holders, surging institutional demand, and still-favorable on-chain indicators paints a compelling picture.

Whether this manifests as a supercycle or simply a longer, stronger bull run, one thing is clear: Bitcoin’s next move could be bigger than ever.

For investors, this may be the most consequential phase in Bitcoin’s history—not just for profit potential, but for the long-term legitimacy and adoption of a decentralized monetary system.

FAQs

What is a Bitcoin supercycle?

A Bitcoin supercycle refers to a market cycle that significantly exceeds the magnitude and duration of previous bull runs, potentially bypassing traditional boom-and-bust phases due to heightened institutional adoption, limited supply, and strong long-term holder conviction.

Why do analysts think Bitcoin could have a third peak in this cycle?

Historical comparisons to the 2013 cycle and behavioral correlations using the MVRV-Z Score suggest that 2025 may include a third major peak, making this the first triple-peak cycle in Bitcoin’s history.

How are ETFs affecting Bitcoin’s price action?

ETFs provide regulated access to Bitcoin for institutional and retail investors, leading to sustained capital inflows, increased liquidity, and reduced short-term volatility—all of which support upward price momentum.

What is the significance of long-term Bitcoin holders in 2025?

Long-term holders are currently increasing their positions even as prices rise—a bullish signal that suggests continued confidence in Bitcoin’s future and limits supply available for sale.

Are current on-chain metrics signaling a market top?

No. Metrics like the MVRV-Z Score, exchange outflows, and the HODL Wave indicate that the market is still in a healthy growth phase with no major signs of speculative excess or widespread profit-taking.

That's all for today, see ya tomorrow! If you want more, be sure to follow our X (@croxroadnewsco), Instagram (@croxroadnews.co), Youtube (@thebitcoinlibertarian), Tiktok (@croxroadnews) and nostr - [email protected]

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.

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