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Why Bitcoin’s Next Major Milestone Could Be $120K

Discover why Bitcoin could be headed toward $120,000 as analysts cite reduced exchange inflows, bullish technical patterns, and surging spot demand. Learn what’s driving the next potential breakout — and the risks that remain.

Bitcoin has once again captured the spotlight, not just for crossing the $100,000 threshold but for what may lie ahead — a potential surge toward the $120,000 mark. Analysts point to a compelling mix of reduced exchange inflows, bullish technical signals, and resilient investor sentiment as catalysts for the next leg up. While the path is promising, it's also riddled with macroeconomic uncertainties that investors must weigh carefully.

Table of Contents

1. Exchange Inflows Drop to Multi-Year Lows: A Sign of Confidence

One of the most telling indicators of market sentiment is how much Bitcoin is flowing into exchanges like Binance — a leading signal of whether investors are preparing to sell. As of early July 2025, data from CryptoQuant shows that the 30-day moving average (DMA) of BTC inflows to Binance has dropped to just 5,147 BTC. For context, this is less than half the inflows seen during bear market periods and significantly lower than the 13,200 BTC inflow recorded in December 2024.

Historically, sharp increases in exchange inflows signal profit-taking or panic selling. For instance, during the FTX collapse in 2022, monthly inflows soared to nearly 24,000 BTC — a clear sign of widespread fear. The current subdued inflows suggest the opposite: investors are holding, not selling, even as Bitcoin trades above $105,000.

“The inflow/outflow ratio remains at a high level, similar to early 2023 when the bull market began,” noted Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. This implies a sustained interest in accumulation and long-term holding.

2. Reclaiming the 50-Day EMA: A Historical Bullish Trigger

Another major bullish signal comes from Bitcoin’s recent reclaim of its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) — a technical level that has historically acted as a springboard during uptrends.

Crypto trader Ibrahim Cosar highlighted that brief dips below the 50-day EMA followed by quick recoveries often precede price surges of 10% to 20%. Recently, Bitcoin not only closed above this moving average but has now maintained three consecutive daily closes above it — a sign that the bulls are back in control.

“This reclaim is typically a bullish signal,” said Cosar, who sees the current setup mirroring past pre-rally patterns.

If history repeats itself, reclaiming this technical level could drive Bitcoin’s price to $120,000 or beyond in the coming weeks.

3. Spot Market Demand Surging, Backed by CVD Trends

A less commonly discussed yet highly relevant metric in assessing market sentiment is the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) in the spot market. This metric calculates the net difference between buying and selling pressure over time, offering insight into the behavior of real buyers rather than derivative-driven speculation.

According to crypto commentator IT Tech, the rising spot CVD indicates a strengthening of buying pressure at current levels (around $108,000), suggesting that fresh capital is entering the market and supporting higher prices organically.

This stands in stark contrast to speculative futures-driven rallies, which are more prone to sudden reversals. With a solid spot foundation, Bitcoin's price trajectory seems sturdier than in past volatile cycles.

4. Investor Behavior Shifting Toward Long-Term Holding

The broader trend shows that Bitcoin holders are increasingly favoring long-term accumulation over short-term trading. This "diamond hands" behavior appears to be gaining traction not only among retail investors but also among institutions.

With the approval of multiple Bitcoin ETFs and increasing participation from traditional finance, there's a growing cohort of investors viewing BTC not as a volatile asset, but as digital gold — a store of value for the long term.

This behavioral shift reduces market volatility and strengthens price floors, making sudden collapses less likely — especially at psychologically significant price levels like $100,000.

5. But Beware: Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Risks Linger

While technicals and on-chain data support the $120,000 thesis, investors should be cautious. Geopolitical tensions, such as unrest in Eastern Europe or Asia, and macroeconomic shifts, like unexpected rate hikes or inflationary surges, could temporarily derail bullish momentum.

Moreover, Bitcoin’s sensitivity to U.S. monetary policy and global liquidity conditions means that external shocks — even unrelated to crypto — can trigger sudden price corrections. Thus, while the upside potential is strong, risk management remains crucial.

Conclusion

The stars may be aligning for Bitcoin’s next major breakout. The combination of low exchange inflows, technical reclaim of the 50-day EMA, spot market strength, and investor confidence creates a compelling case for a run toward $120,000.

Yet, this is not a guaranteed trajectory. Savvy investors must stay vigilant, balancing optimism with caution as macroeconomic variables evolve. Still, if the current momentum continues, the $120K milestone may no longer be a matter of “if,” but “when.”

FAQs

Why are low Bitcoin exchange inflows considered bullish?

Low exchange inflows mean fewer people are sending BTC to exchanges, which typically indicates reduced selling pressure. This suggests that investors are confident in Bitcoin’s future price appreciation and are choosing to hold rather than sell.

What is the significance of Bitcoin reclaiming its 50-day EMA?

Reclaiming the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is historically associated with bullish reversals and breakout rallies. It often signals that a correction is over and upward momentum is resuming.

What does a rising spot CVD mean for Bitcoin?

A rising Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) in the spot market indicates increasing net buying pressure. This suggests that organic demand — not just leveraged speculation — is driving the price, which is seen as a healthy bullish signal.

Is $120,000 a realistic short-term target for Bitcoin?

According to several analysts and technical patterns, yes. The combination of low inflows, EMA reclaim, and strong demand creates favorable conditions for a move toward $120,000. However, macroeconomic risks still apply.

What are the key risks that could prevent Bitcoin from reaching $120K?

Potential risks include macroeconomic instability (e.g., interest rate changes, inflation), geopolitical conflicts, or major regulatory developments. These external factors could disrupt momentum even if on-chain and technical indicators remain bullish.

That's all for today, see ya tomorrow! If you want more, be sure to follow our X (@croxroadnewsco), Instagram (@croxroadnews.co), Youtube (@thebitcoinlibertarian), Tiktok (@croxroadnews) and nostr - [email protected]

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.

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