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Standard Chartered Predicts Bitcoin Surge to $120K by Q2

Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin will hit $120,000 by Q2 2025, driven by whale accumulation, institutional ETF flows, and reallocation from U.S. assets. Learn what's fueling this bullish forecast.

In a bold new report, Standard Chartered Bank has predicted that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high of $120,000 by the end of Q2 2025, citing a combination of macroeconomic trends, shifting investor behavior, and structural momentum in the crypto market. The forecast, made by Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s Global Head of Digital Assets Research, has caught the attention of crypto investors and institutional analysts alike.

Table of Contents

Strategic Reallocation from U.S. Assets

At the heart of Kendrick’s bullish outlook is a notable shift in capital flows. According to the report, U.S.-based investors are moving capital out of domestic assets and reallocating it into alternative stores of value—chief among them, Bitcoin.

This pivot, Kendrick argues, was catalyzed by President Donald Trump’s April 9 announcement of a 90-day tariff reprieve for all countries except China. “Time-of-day analysis suggests that U.S. investors are actively seeking non-U.S. assets,” said Kendrick, pointing out a strong correlation between U.S. Treasury term premiums—which are at 12-year highs—and Bitcoin price movements.

Whale Accumulation Signals Institutional Confidence

The report also highlights strong accumulation activity by 'whales'—investors holding more than 1,000 BTC. These large holders have historically acted as bellwethers for Bitcoin’s major price moves. Kendrick notes that whales increased their exposure during several pivotal market moments in recent history, including the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, Bitcoin ETF approvals, and Trump’s election victory. Their renewed accumulation suggests high confidence in Bitcoin’s short-to-mid-term trajectory.

ETF Inflows and Institutional Momentum

Another key driver of the anticipated surge is the ongoing institutional embrace of Bitcoin ETFs. Kendrick cited ETF flows over the past week as further evidence of safe-haven reallocation—this time from gold to Bitcoin. He anticipates a further boost when upcoming 13F filings in mid-May reveal Bitcoin exposure among U.S. pension funds and sovereign wealth funds.

“Institutional interest continues to grow,” Kendrick emphasized. “Bitcoin's sharp gains could extend through the summer, as more long-term capital enters the market.”

Bitcoin vs. Gold: A New Hedge Emerges

Standard Chartered’s analysis goes beyond technicals and market flows, delving into the evolving role of Bitcoin as a macro hedge asset. Kendrick argues that while gold remains effective against geopolitical instability, Bitcoin is emerging as the better hedge against systemic risks in the global financial system.

“Bitcoin’s decentralized nature makes it more suitable for investors looking to protect against central bank policy uncertainty or fiscal instability,” Kendrick explained. He noted that ETF flows have shown a notable rotation from gold to Bitcoin, underscoring a shift in investor sentiment.

Long-Term Outlook: $200,000 by Year-End

While the $120,000 target for Q2 has sparked headlines, Kendrick maintains an even more ambitious year-end 2025 target of $200,000. This reflects expectations of:

  • Continued global macro uncertainty

  • Structural support from upcoming U.S. stablecoin legislation

  • A near tenfold increase in stablecoin supply by 2028

  • Expanding institutional legitimacy for the asset class

Market Snapshot

As of May 14, 2025, Bitcoin is trading around $95,500, up from its January 20 all-time high of $108,786. While volatility remains, the broader narrative appears bullish—especially if Standard Chartered’s predictions materialize.

Conclusion

Standard Chartered’s call to “buy Bitcoin now” reflects growing confidence among major financial institutions that the cryptocurrency is maturing into a core component of modern investment portfolios. With macroeconomic shifts and institutional flows aligning, the next few months could prove pivotal for Bitcoin’s standing as a digital hedge—and for crypto's broader acceptance on Wall Street.

FAQs

Why does Standard Chartered believe Bitcoin will reach $120,000 by Q2 2025?

Geoffrey Kendrick of Standard Chartered attributes the forecast to multiple converging factors, including a shift in investment away from U.S. assets, increased buying from institutional investors, strong ETF inflows, and accumulation by large Bitcoin holders (“whales”).

What role did U.S. tariffs play in the prediction?

Following President Trump’s April 9 announcement of a 90-day tariff reprieve (excluding China), time-of-day trading data suggests that U.S. investors began reallocating funds into non-U.S. assets like Bitcoin, contributing to upward price pressure.

How does whale accumulation affect Bitcoin’s price?

“Whales” are investors holding over 1,000 BTC. Their consistent accumulation often signals confidence and has historically preceded major bull runs, acting as a strong bullish indicator.

What is the significance of ETF flows mentioned in the report?

Recent inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, particularly from investors shifting out of gold ETFs, suggest growing institutional confidence in Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset and hedge against financial instability.

Why does Kendrick consider Bitcoin a better hedge than gold?

According to Kendrick, Bitcoin’s decentralized nature makes it more effective at hedging against systemic financial risks, whereas gold is more suitable for mitigating geopolitical uncertainties.

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.

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