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Bitcoin to Rise as Gold Challenges US Treasuries, Says Luke Gromen

Macro investor Luke Gromen predicts Bitcoin could surge as gold replaces U.S. Treasuries as the global settlement asset. Learn how this shift could reshape monetary policy and benefit BTC.

As geopolitical and macroeconomic pressures intensify, a potential transformation in the global financial architecture may be underway—one that sees gold, not U.S. Treasuries, taking the lead as the world’s preferred settlement asset. According to macro investor Luke Gromen, such a shift could ultimately benefit Bitcoin, positioning it as a parallel digital store of value in a new era of monetary policy.

Table of Contents

A Paradigm Shift: From Treasuries to Gold

In a recent commentary, Luke Gromen argues that the United States can no longer maintain its long-standing role as the supplier of global liquidity through the export of U.S. Treasuries. If America is to successfully reshore its manufacturing base, as current and past administrations have promised, it must reduce its reliance on exporting financial assets.

Gromen suggests the alternative is a monetary system rooted in neutral reserve assets—particularly gold. He explains that by allowing gold to become the primary settlement instrument, the U.S. could mitigate some of the systemic contradictions created by the current dollar-based reserve structure.

Triffin’s Dilemma: The Hidden Cost of Dollar Dominance

Central to Gromen’s thesis is Triffin’s Dilemma, a paradox identified by economist Robert Triffin in the mid-20th century. It posits that the country issuing the world’s reserve currency must run persistent trade deficits to supply liquidity, yet doing so undermines the long-term value and stability of its currency.

Gromen believes this unsustainable model is reaching its breaking point. “We can export Treasuries and financial assets, or we can make stuff,” he explains. “But if we want to make stuff, that’s the end of the post-1971 U.S. dollar reserve status structure.”

The solution, he says, is to transition toward a neutral settlement asset like gold. In such a system, gold would anchor the financial system, enabling trade and capital flows without forcing the U.S. to erode its industrial base or inflate its debt levels.

A Subtle Political Signal: Tariffs and Gold

Gromen points to a particularly revealing political gesture: during his presidency, Donald Trump imposed tariffs on nearly every major import—except gold. To Gromen, this wasn’t accidental. It could be a signal that U.S. policymakers are quietly repositioning gold as a desirable destination for capital in a shifting global monetary order.

“If gold goes up a bunch, it’ll strengthen the dollar system because it’ll be more gold-backed and you’re going to weaken the dollar,” Gromen noted. This paradoxical approach—weakening the dollar in the short term to strengthen the broader dollar system—could serve as a “middle ground” solution to Triffin’s Dilemma.

Bitcoin: The Digital Beneficiary

While Gromen’s primary focus is on gold, he believes Bitcoin (BTC) stands to gain significantly as well. As confidence in traditional financial instruments erodes, and investors increasingly seek out neutral, non-sovereign stores of value, Bitcoin could emerge as a digital complement to gold.

“Bitcoin probably benefits over time from that, too,” Gromen notes. As a decentralized asset with a capped supply and increasing institutional legitimacy, Bitcoin mirrors many of the characteristics that make gold attractive—yet with added features like portability, programmability, and censorship resistance.

Implications for Investors and Policymakers

If Gromen’s vision plays out, the implications could be vast:

  • Investors may need to rebalance their portfolios toward hard assets like gold and Bitcoin, especially as fiat-denominated assets face pressure.

  • Policymakers could find themselves navigating a more complex, multi-asset reserve system—one that includes both physical and digital stores of value.

  • Nations looking to de-dollarize may increasingly use gold—and eventually Bitcoin—as a way to insulate themselves from geopolitical risks.

Conclusion

The world may be entering a new chapter in monetary history—one that marks a departure from the post-Bretton Woods, Treasury-dominated system toward a hybrid era of gold and Bitcoin. Luke Gromen’s analysis paints a compelling picture of how a return to gold-backed trade settlement could not only resolve the Triffin paradox but also elevate Bitcoin as a key beneficiary of monetary realignment.

Whether this scenario unfolds exactly as described remains to be seen, but the directional signal is clear: the foundations of global finance are shifting—and both gold and Bitcoin are rising to meet the moment.

FAQs

Who is Luke Gromen?

Luke Gromen is a macroeconomic analyst and the founder of Forest for the Trees (FFTT), a research firm focused on global financial trends. He’s known for his insights into sovereign debt, monetary policy, and the evolving role of currencies and reserve assets.

What is the main idea behind Gromen’s theory?

Gromen suggests that the U.S. can no longer sustain its role as the issuer of the global reserve currency through Treasury exports. Instead, he believes a shift toward using gold as a neutral settlement asset is likely—and that this change could indirectly benefit Bitcoin.

What is Triffin’s Dilemma, and why is it relevant?

Triffin’s Dilemma describes the conflict faced by countries that issue global reserve currencies: they must run trade deficits to provide liquidity, which eventually undermines the value of their currency. Gromen argues that moving to gold as a settlement asset could help solve this paradox.

How does Bitcoin fit into this narrative?

Bitcoin, like gold, is a scarce, non-sovereign asset. If confidence in fiat currencies and Treasuries declines, Bitcoin could rise as a digital alternative for investors seeking value preservation outside traditional systems.

Why did Gromen highlight Trump’s trade policy on gold?

Gromen noted that Trump placed tariffs on almost all imports—but excluded gold. He interprets this as a subtle signal that U.S. policymakers may be encouraging capital to move into gold as part of a broader strategic shift in the monetary system.

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.

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