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Biggest Options Expiry of the Year? $14B in BTC & ETH Contracts Hit the Clock

Over $14 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expired on March 28, 2025, marking the biggest crypto options expiry of the year. Explore the impact on market volatility, trader sentiment, and what's next for BTC and ETH in Q2.

On March 28, 2025, the cryptocurrency market witnessed one of its most significant events of the year: the quarterly expiry of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options contracts, with a staggering $14.21 billion in notional value set to expire. This event has not only caught the attention of retail and institutional traders but also raised key questions about short-term market direction, volatility, and technical price behavior.

Table of Contents

The Breakdown: BTC & ETH Expiry by the Numbers

According to data from Deribit, the world’s largest crypto options exchange:

  • Bitcoin (BTC) Options

    • 139,260 contracts

    • Notional value: $12.075 billion

    • Put-to-call ratio: 0.49 (indicates more bullish call options)

    • Maximum pain point: $85,000

  • Ethereum (ETH) Options

    • 1,068,519 contracts

    • Notional value: $2.135 billion

    • Put-to-call ratio: 0.39

    • Maximum pain point: $2,400

Compared to the previous week’s figures — just 21,596 BTC and 133,447 ETH options expired with notional values of $1.826 billion and $264 million, respectively — this is a seismic increase driven by quarter-end and month-end convergence.

Understanding the Jargon: What’s “Maximum Pain” and “Put-to-Call”?

  • Maximum Pain Point is the price at which the largest number of options holders (both puts and calls) experience losses, often seen as a magnet for prices around expiry.

  • The Put-to-Call Ratio helps assess sentiment:

    • A ratio below 1 (like BTC's 0.49 and ETH's 0.39) suggests more call (bullish) contracts than puts (bearish), implying bullish market sentiment.

Implied Volatility: What Traders Expect

Volatility curves are showing divergent patterns for the two leading crypto assets:

  • Bitcoin’s implied volatility (IV) curve exhibits an upside skew, meaning calls are priced higher than puts — a sign that traders expect potential upward movement.

  • Ethereum’s curve is flatter, showing less directional bias but still signaling elevated trading volume across strike prices.

According to Deribit analysts, both markets reflect a heightened anticipation of price action during and immediately after expiry.

Sentiment Watch: Bullish Hopes vs Bearish Risks

While volatility data hints at bullish expectations, Greeks.live analysts warn of a “cautiously bearish” sentiment:

  • BTC key levels:

    • Resistance at $88,400 (where heavy selling was previously observed)

    • Support near $77,000 (labeled by some as a “definite bottom”)

    • BTC was trading at $85,960 at the time of expiry, hovering near the maximum pain level

Some traders interpret Bitcoin's recent price behavior as range-bound, awaiting a breakout or breakdown.

Why Does It All Happen on a Friday?

Crypto options on Deribit expire on Fridays, mimicking the expiration pattern of traditional financial (TradFi) markets. This synchronization:

  • Provides predictability

  • Aligns with established settlement cycles

  • Helps TradFi traders feel at home in crypto markets

This quarterly expiry is especially notable as it concludes Q1 2025, often a catalyst for position adjustments and portfolio rebalancing.

What’s Next for Q2?

With the dust settling from this massive expiry, all eyes are now on:

  • BTC’s ability to break $88K or retest $77K

  • ETH’s struggle to reclaim momentum above $2,500

  • Volatility plays, as traders eye deviations in IV marks to execute strategies, both manual and algorithmic

Q2 could open with a bang — or a fizzle — depending on how markets digest this monumental expiration event.

Conclusion

The March 28 options expiry was more than just a routine quarterly event — it was a litmus test for crypto market structure, sentiment, and volatility. With over $14 billion on the line, traders were forced to reassess their strategies and risk levels as BTC and ETH flirted with critical price zones.

As we step into Q2, expect continued volatility, technical battles, and an eye on macro catalysts like Fed policy, TradFi correlations, and crypto-specific regulation.

FAQs

What is an options expiry in crypto?

Options expiry refers to the date when cryptocurrency options contracts become void. Traders must either exercise the contract or let it expire. This often triggers increased volatility and trading activity.

Why was the March 28, 2025 expiry significant?

It marked the end of Q1 2025, with over $14.21 billion in BTC and ETH options expiring — the largest such event so far this year.

What does the "maximum pain point" mean in options trading?

The maximum pain point is the price at which the highest number of option holders experience financial losses, influencing where the market might gravitate around expiry.

How does the put-to-call ratio indicate market sentiment?

A low ratio (below 1) shows more call options than put options, indicating bullish sentiment. Both BTC (0.49) and ETH (0.39) had low ratios during this expiry.

What is implied volatility (IV) and why does it matter?

Implied Volatility reflects market expectations of future price swings. High IV suggests anticipated large movements, helping traders strategize on options pricing and hedging.

That's all for today, see ya tomorrow! If you want more, be sure to follow our X (@croxroadnewsco), Instagram (@croxroadnews.co), Youtube (@thebitcoinlibertarian), Tiktok (@croxroadnews) and nostr - [email protected]

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.

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